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金沙娱乐官网网址:Who decided you bought the fund is earned is lost? 15 years of big data to help you find out

时间:2017/12/25 15:02:16  作者:  来源:  浏览:0  评论:0
内容摘要:China Merchants Securities 7 _ 89456 _ 2 _ 65473 _ 97 _ 89456 _ 3 _ 65473 _ 97 _ 89456 _ 4 _ 65473 _ 912 On December 20, a research report w...

China Merchants Securities 7 _ 89456 _ 2 _ 65473 _ 97 _ 89456 _ 3 _ 65473 _ 97 _ 89456 _ 4 _ 65473 _ 912 On December 20, a research report was published with the report titled "Empirical Study on the Determinants of Performance of Equity Funded Funds in China (2002Q3-2017Q3)". In other words, the report focuses on the following: Open-end funds have experienced ups and downs in ups and downs for more than 10 years. What are the key factors that affect the fund's performance?

The Daily Economic News reporter noticed that the report focuses on fund managers, fund products and fund companies, which not only confirm some long-standing speculations, but also come to some conclusions of considerable practical value. For example, a fund manager who had been a selling researcher performed slightly better than a non-performing fund manager while the gender of the fund manager had little effect on performance; however, frequent turnover and joint management of the same fund by multiple people had a negative impact on performance; good performance this year Fund, underperformance next year is a high probability events; institutions get together fund performance better, and so on. Below, we will quote one of the main findings of the report and conclusions, for your reference.

Among the characteristics of fund managers, several characteristics that have the most significant impact on the performance of the fund are as follows: the fund managers who served as the seller of the seller, the length of the fund manager and the concentration of shareholdings, all of which have a significant positive effect on the fund's performance , And the correlation coefficient is larger. The fund manager gender, education has little effect. Frequent job shifts and co-management of the same fund by more than one fund manager will have a negative impact.

Positive impact:

1. Former seller researcher: Can dig deeper into individual stocks, understand industry trends, possess more rich professional knowledge and deeper research skills. The average performance of the fund managers who used to be the selling researcher was 0.28% higher (about 9% of the overall average) than the average performance of a fund manager who had never been a selling researcher.

2. Length of Fund Manager (Longer): The richer experience of fund managers invests, the more market conditions they experience, the more thorough the research on trades and stocks, and the better their performance. 3. Concentration of shares (higher): The higher the concentration of shares of the fund, the greater the flexibility of performance. In the case of large fluctuations in Awkwardness, the corresponding fluctuations in the fund's performance will be caused.

1, Gender: There is no significant difference in the average performance of the male and female fund managers, but the average retracement of the female fund managers is significantly smaller, that is, the female fund managers are better at controlling the risks. Of course, women's fund managers also have a smaller sample size.

2. Education background: (including previous MBA, CFA or CPA holding certificates): The average performance of fund managers with master's and doctoral qualifications is significantly better, especially in terms of pullback control. However, the master and doctoral qualifications of fund managers in the performance, withdrawal control, etc. are no significant differences. Among all the sample of fund managers, the largest number of masters.

Negative impact:

1, job hopping: The more the number of job-hopping managers, the performance may have some negative effects. The reason is that every time you switch jobs, both the corporate system and the funds you manage will take some time to adjust and may affect the performance of your performance to a certain extent.

2. Number of Fund Managers in the Same Fund: The same number of fund managers who jointly manage the fund during the same fund period will also have a negative impact on the fund's performance. The reason is that every fund manager's investment will likely not be fully reflected, resulting in the final performance is lower than expected.

Among the characteristics of the fund itself, the correlation between various factors and performance is high. Among them, the fund's previous results and changes in the size of the previous period have a significant adverse impact on the performance of the fund, while institutional investors hold a higher proportion of funds, the average performance is better.

1. The previous performance corresponding to the fund has a significant reverse impact on the fund's performance for the current period, all of which have the same direction of strengthening the risk-return index and the withdrawal. In other words, the good performance of the fund this year, the performance of backwardness is a big probability event. The familiar stock fund champion curse, perhaps because of this. The reason is: First of all, the better the performance of the previous fund (more than the average), the next performance will be lower than the average, the phenomenon in line with the concept of mean return. That is, on average, the long-term performance of the fund will all tend to be on the same level with all other factors fixed. Secondly, the performance of the previous period will be better on the basis of risk-return and interval withdrawal, Period will continue its performance may be due to the two indicators are also subject to the risk control ability, which ability or style in the short term is difficult to make a big change, and may be due to adhere to the previous period Style, which led to the risk of return and strengthen the same direction.

2. The last period of the fund has a significant negative effect on the performance of the fund in the next period, as well as the risk return and recovery. The reason is that firstly, the increase of the previous period may result in the failure to timely arrange and adjust positions in the next period, so that the overall revenue will be diluted and the performance will be adversely affected. However, the retracement may be caused by the possibility of a decrease in the position Second, the increase in size may also lead to a decrease in the concentration of investment and a more diversified overall investment, resulting in a decrease in the pullback. Third, although both performance and retracement will decrease, the performance will be more affected than the return Therefore, the overall risk-benefit ratio declines.

3. The higher the proportion of institutional investors holding shares, the better the performance of the fund and the performance of risk and return, and the better the control of withdrawal. The reason is that institutional investors have more specialized means of investment analysis, and due to large amounts of funds, they can have more opportunities to conduct field research and research, and ultimately choose funds with stronger investment power.

Among the various characteristics of fund companies, the correlation between each factor and performance and withdrawal control is high. Among them, the higher the overall ownership concentration of fund companies, the greater the scale of equity assets management, the longer the founding date of the fund company, the better the performance of the fund and the higher the risk control level. These factors are also more relevant to each other and need to be considered at the same time.

1. The higher the HHI of a fund company, the better the fund's performance. The corresponding Jensen ratio (excess return level) is also higher, and the ability of interval withdrawal control is better. The reason is: First, the company's overall concentration of shares means that the company has strong internal investment research and internal communication mechanisms. Fund managers, fund managers and researchers can better communicate with each other and eventually get more consistent The view, on the contrary, is a manifestation of a higher certainty, so the retracement of the control level is better. Second, if the amount of funds in a particular unit of Shigekura is sufficient, it may affect the stock price to a certain extent, thus contributing to the performance of the fund.

2. The larger the equity management of the fund company, the better the performance of the fund and the Jensen ratio, and the stronger the control of the interval withdrawal. The reason is that firstly, the larger the scale of equity management, the more experience the company has in terms of equity management; the second is that the company's fund managers have a strong ability to manage equity assets to attract more capital investment; and third, Large-scale may form a certain "scale effect", thereby enhancing fund performance.

3. The higher the registered capital of the fund company, the longer the establishment period, the better the fund's performance and the better control of the withdrawal. The reason is: First, the company's registered capital and the establishment of a symbol of the strength of the company are all years, veteran fund companies operating long hours, rich management experience, its full range of products, to provide a larger platform and more solid research support, owned Of the fund managers also have stronger average management capabilities and hence better performance. Second, the higher the registered capital of the company, the longer the establishment of the company, which means that the overall structure of the company is more complete and the risk control system is more robust and has experienced more Risk events, so the level of risk control is also higher.

To sum up, investors may choose funds managed by fund managers who have experience in the seller and whose fund managers have a longer life, provided the other factors are similar and there is no obvious difference. At the same time concerned about the selected fund management companies, as far as possible choose to manage a larger, more long-established funds issued by the fund; in similar circumstances, the company can take into account the overall concentration of ownership, you can choose the whole More concentrated products issued by the fund company may be able to achieve more excess returns. However, it should be noted that if the overall concentration of the company is too high, there may be risks of a sharp retracement due to a sharp decline in a single heavyweight.

In addition, while the empirical findings in the report indicate that the fund's previous results and the increase in size have a certain opposite effect on the fund's performance for the current period, this does not mean that investors are advised to choose the poor performance of the previous period , The size of the fund has not significantly expanded.

The results are based on the statistical data of different periods. After all, past performance and management scale also reflect the investment strength of the fund manager to a certain extent. Therefore, the result needs to be combined with other factors to make a judgment. Therefore, the result is only more to make some investment timing suggestions for investors: Do not make "impulsive investment" in the case of a fund which is excellent in terms of performance and increase in scale significantly Similarly, the fund investment can not "chase sell", so as to avoid more difficult to obtain excess returns.





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